Homework Page for S+I+R Modeling

All assignments on this page are due 3/30 or 4/1

and I expect will require your attention over break.

 

Here is the outline of things you need to do for this unit on SIR Modeling.  Some of these essays, videos, and exercises you have seen already on the front porch of our class site.  Here, I have reorganized everything for clarity.  Go through all the steps in the table below and make sure that you have completed all expected parts of the assignment.  I especially want you to make an SIR spreadsheet and not simply use the ones I provided.

 

This part of the homework was assigned previously and was technically due on 3/18, but not everybody has settled into the new class format, so have this done by 3/30 (after break).

 

1.1)  Read Part I of "Modeling an Epidemic: SIR-Essay-PtsI&II."  This includes Parts I and II. [I previously had a link only to Part I.]

 

1.2)  Turn in: Do these exercises based on Part I of the reading from 1.1.  (a, b, and c are just different formats of the same thing.)

 

a- Exercise for 3/18: PDF Form version.  If this works, you should be able to fill it out, rename it using your last name and the date, and send that back to me.  I've never done this before, so it might not work.  Give it a shot.

 

b-Word.doc version.  Fill out on your computer (or similar) and send back with your last name and the date as the file name... or print out, fill out, photograph, send to me.

 

c- Standard PDF.  Print out, fill out, photograph, send to me.

 

The following are due for Monday, 3/30/2020 (or 4/1/2020)

2)  Listen  to this RadioLab episode:  RadioLab-Patient Zero- Excellent episode. Interesting use of sound and music.

3)  Read this chapter from David Quammen's Spillover: Quammen-Malaria-Modeling- Describes the history of mathematical modeling (SIR model).  Also lots of interesting side stories.

4)  Watch this intro video: SIR Model Introduction [100MB]

5)  Read Part II of "Modeling an Epidemic: SIR-Essay-PtsI&II."

6)  Make an SIR Model in GoogleSheets (or similar spreadsheet). Instructions here: "Making an SIR Model in GoogleSheets" [PDF]. Don't turn this in.  Just do it on your own.

 

             .... and Watch these videos.

a) Video: 1-GooglesheetSIRTour [52MB]

b) Video: 2-GoogleSheetTutorial [86MB]

c)  The following link is to the models I worked up: SI, SIR, and SIR-∂I models.  They are available to you using this link: LINK.  Play around with them.*  [There are a few models in the tabs at the bottom of the window.]  Try different initial conditions.  Use these or the one you made to do part 8 below.

             I suggest that you download this set of models into your own Google account.  You can do this by going to the File menu and from that menu you have several options:  Import, Make a Copy, Download, Email, Add to My Drive, etc.  You'll have to figure out which is best for you.  Once you have them on your own drive they should be editable.  This editability is dangereous because you can accidentally mess up a formula cell.  I suggest that you make copies and store the originals in a separate folder so that you can go back to them if you damage the one you are working with.  GoogleSheets is great and it is a big pain in the ass.  Excel is better on this point.  In Excel you can secure the sheet so that you, the owner/user, cannot accidentally type over a formula cell.

 

*A possible problem: When playing with these models it is probable that other users (other students in the class) might be simulaneously playing with the same model and making your numbers change.  That's why I recommend making your own personal copies of these spreadsheets and playing with them in the privacy of your own account. 

   

 

7)  Read this:  MODELING CoVid19 USING SIR [PDF]

 

 

8)  Do this to be turned in: SIR Model Assignment.  Due on Wednesday, 4/1/2020.

 

 

Optional materials:

-NYTimes story: Worst Case Scenario: [PDF] Slightly depressing, but appropriate vis-a-vis the assignment.

 

-Gorman-Lab Animals and CoVid19  [PDF]

 

-IOT- The Origins of Infectious Diseases [Radio PodCast]

 

-Quammen on the history of HIV/AIDS- good description of the "Molecular Clock."  [PDF]

 

-Lai-Collins-NYT-3.19.20-Which Country Has Flattened the Curve for the Coronavirus?  [PDF]

 

 

Please let me know if these links are not working for you.

email me

 

 

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